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Industries · Energy

What if prices swing unexpectedly?

Test how a book and its hedges respond when prices and weather turn: every delivery day of the year simulated, options revalued in full rather than by their delta.

01

One question, start to finish.

Ask what if; Henselian runs the model on every record and every path; you read what then.

  1. What if

    What if the wind drops for a week?

  2. Run

    Power book and hedge: a year day by day

    A wind PPA, fixed-price supply and a Cal forward, every delivery day simulated with persistent wind and its effect on price.

  3. What then

    Expected shortfall with and without the Cal base hedge: whether the hedge earns its cost.

02

Start from a model that already asks.

Each is a working model in the app's Model builder, written in Hensel and run on the GPU. They start from a synthetic book; your data replaces it, record by record.

2 models in the Model builder

Trading and origination1

  • Power book and hedge: a year day by day

    A wind PPA, fixed-price supply and a Cal forward, each delivery day simulated with persistent wind and its price effect: expected shortfall with and without a Cal base hedge.

Risk1

  • Options at risk over the month: full revaluation

    A cap, a sold PPA floor and a Cal forward, revalued on every path a month out by their own simulated delivery years: the 1-in-100 loss, against the delta shortcut.

03

Fast enough to ask again.

41 s

for 1.5 trillion member-paths: a 2.5-million-member UK buy-in, end to end on one graphics card

137×

faster than hand-optimised C on all 32 threads of the same machine

1

engine, one language, one app, for insurance, banking and energy alike

How these were measured →

These were measured on an insurance run, a UK buy-in. The energy models above run on the same engine and language; a benchmark of their own is next.

04

One invitation

Come and challenge us.

If you work in insurance, banking, energy, or anywhere uncertainty drives important decisions, bring us the simulation problem your organisation wishes it could solve faster. Let's find out what's possible.